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A RESILIÊNCIA BRASILEIRA

OPINIÃO

A RESILIÊNCIA BRASILEIRA!

Semana iniciada em 10_07_2017

Do novo dicionário Aurélio: “resiliência, resistência ao choque, elasticidade”. Eu adiciono, “plasticidade”, capacidade de se moldar à novas situações. É como vejo a situação politica e econômica do Brasil atual, embora aparentemente eu seja parte de uma crescente minoria. Ainda assim, apresento nesse artigo minha opinião, fundamentada em dois grupos de dados, um levantamento mostrado pelo jornal “O Estado de São Paulo” na data de hoje, 6 de julho de 2017, sob o título “Estudo mostra que a retomada resiste à crise politica”¹ e um texto atual da Consultoria internacional Eurásia. Como se vê nos quadros abaixo, colados do jornal mostro vinte indicadores que acusam melhorias evidentes da economia, realçando que o quadro politico NÃO CONTAMINOU A ECONOMIA:

 

 

Do ponto de vista político, acabo de receber o artigo da Consultoria Eurasia, em inglês, que com a devida citação da fonte, reproduzo abaixo:

BRAZIL

Christopher Garman Joao Augusto de Castro Neves Filipe Gruppelli Carvalho

Short-term Outlook: NEUTRAL Long-term Outlook: NEUTRAL

Temer maintains advantage amid nomination of independent rapporteur. On 4 July, the lower house’s Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) president nominated Sergio Zveiter of the PMDB to be the rapporteur for the committee’s debate on Prosecutor-General Rodrigo Janot’s charges against President Michel Temer. Zveiter’s promise of an independent and unbiased recommendation has prompted news stories indicating a negative outlook for Temer. While Zveiter’s appointment does in fact increase the chances for a recommendation that the lower house accept Janot’s charges, news reports indicating a significant setback for Temer are overblown. The government has around 30 out of 34 votes needed to either approve Zveiter’s recommendations, or their own alternative report if Zveiter goes against the president. Further political work by the Presidential Palace in upcoming days indicates a continuous effort to ensure an increase in the level of support in the lower house. Hence, the administration will likely survive the CCJ and plenary votes.

Risks in Temer’s inner circle are worth monitoring but do not change outlook for survival. With the arrest of former Government Secretary minister Geddel Vieira Lima this week, much of what was Temer’s inner circle has succumbed to the scandal, generating concerns that they may drag the president with them. It is no surprise that rumors of new plea bargains have emerged this week, with attention focusing on Eduardo Cunha and Rodrigo Rocha Loures—who was recently put under house arrest. This kind of speculation on the Lava Jato will continue in upcoming weeks. However, the impact of these plea bargains would be contained. In addition to being confirmed, usually they take several months to negotiate. Moreover, in order to become a meaningful risk to Temer these possible testimonies need to be backed by concrete evidence. That said, while a risk worth monitoring, these developments do not alter Eurasia Group’s 70% odds that Temer will conclude his term. We remain of the view that most legislators will choose to maintain Temer given the tacit support for the president by the business elites, which increase the cost of his removal, as well as the lack of mobilization in street demonstrations and protests. Without significant pressure from markets, business elites and the streets, lawmakers will not feel compelled to remove Temer from office (please see BRAZIL: Temer poised to defeat motion for his prosecution in July vote, 30 June 2017).

Assinalei em amarelo a parte que mais interessa que traduzo: Dito isto, enquanto um risco que vale a pena monitorar, esses desenvolvimentos não alteram as chances de 70% do Grupo Eurasia de que Temer conclua seu mandato. 

Ou seja, grande chance  de Temer concluir seu mandato e ver a economia brasileira se recuperar da crise gigantesca que os mandatos do PT nos colocaram, com um recuo do PIB de quase 10% entre 2015 e 2016; como nosso PIB é da ordem de 5 trilhões de reais, voltamos para trás algo proximo de quinhentos bilhões de reais!.

 


¹ Vie o artigo pelo link http://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,estudo-mostra-que-a-retomada-resiste-a-crise-politica,70001878654